![]() Robert Todd Carroll
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ganzfeldThe ganzfeld ("total field") experiments have been hailed by many parapsychologists as providing scientific proof of telepathy or clairvoyance. According to Dean Radin: “We are fully justified in having very high confidence that people sometimes get small amounts of specific information from a distance without the use of the ordinary senses. Psi effects do occur in the ganzfeld” (Radin 1997: 88). The studies of German psychologist Wolfgang Metzger (1899-1979) in the 1920s and '30s "on the perception of the homogeneous visual field (Ganzfeld) were so widely read that ganzfeld was adopted as a generally accepted term."* In the mid 1970s, parapsychologists began designing telepathy experiments that called for the receiver to be put in a soundproof room with homogeneous visual and auditory stimuli. The so-called ganzfeld experiments were conducted because it was widely believed by parapsychologists that the ganzfeld would provide a psi-conducive state. They were also grounded in the psi assumption: any statistically significant deviation from chance performance would be taken as evidence of psi, which would now be defined as
The ganzfeld experiments, like most other telepathy and clairvoyance experiments, would be grounded in the psi-focus assumption. Between 1974 and 1981, forty-two ganzfeld experiments were conducted whose results were reported or published. According to Charles Honorton, 55% of the studies produced positive results and a meta-analysis found a successful hit rate of 38% when 25% was expected by chance. Psychologist Ray Hyman did the first meta-analysis of the ganzfeld studies and though he used different criteria for excluding studies from the meta-analysis, he also found a hit rate of about 38% even though only 31% of the studies he included showed positive results (1989, 1996). Susan Blackmore found thirty-one unpublished studies from this period, but their results were not less successful than the published ones (1980). It seems unlikely that either chance or the file-drawer effect could account for the statistical significance of these results. However, there were enough problems with the original ganzfeld studies that Honorton and Hyman issued a joint communiqué in 1986 in which they detailed the kinds of safeguards that future experiments should take. Hyman writes: “In our joint paper, both Honorton and I agreed that there were sufficient problems with this original database that nothing could be concluded until further replications, conducted according to specified criteria, appeared.” In the joint paper, they wrote: “We agree that there is an overall significant effect in this data base that cannot reasonably be explained by selective reporting or multiple analysis. We continue to differ over the degree to which the effect constitutes evidence for psi, but we agree that the final verdict awaits the outcome of future experiments conducted by a broader range of investigators and according to more stringent standards (Hyman & Honorton, 1986, p. 351). A few years earlier, Honorton and a few other parapsychologists were using automated techniques in their ganzfeld experiments. The autoganzfeld experiments, created by Dr. Rick Berger, were conducted between 1983 and 1989. “Most of the [auto]ganzfeld experiments took advantage of lessons learned in past psi research, thereby avoiding many of the design problems discovered by early experimenters” (Radin: 74). The results of the autoganzfeld were published in 1990 in the Journal of Parapsychology. There were eight experimenters involved in eleven studies, who used 240 people in 354 sessions. They produced a hit rate of 34% when 25% was chance expectation. the experiments Before looking at the criticisms of the ganzfeld and autoganzfeld experiments, let's first examine the general design of the experiments done in 1974-1981. Not all experiments were conducted in the same way, so the following is a description of the majority of those studies used in Honorton's meta-analysis. We'll note concerns that critics had with these experiments and how the autoganzfeld experiments done in 1983-1989 tried to improve on the earlier studies. There are three phases to the ganzfeld experiments. 1. Preparing the receiver and the sender. The receiver
should be placed
in a comfortable chair in a soundproof room. She wears headphones which play continuous white
Apparently, not all of the studies had truly soundproof rooms, so videos might be heard in the hallway by experimenters and their discussions might be overheard by the receiver. Critics of both the ganzfeld and autoganzfeld questioned whether most of the studies had truly eliminated this avenue for sensory leakage. 2. Sending the target. The sender is seated In another soundproof room, preferably in another part of the building rather than adjacent to the receiver's room. A pool of opaque packets contains potential targets. Typically, the packets will consist of four pictures or four short video clips. Ideally, the pictures or videos are very unlike each other. Ideally, the target is arrived at by a truly random selection being made from the packets and then another random selection being made from the selected packet. Ideally, the experimenter who works with the sender and the sender himself do not meet with the receiver or the experimenter who is working with the receiver until after the receiver has been shown the target and the three decoys and has made her selection. At that point the actual target may be revealed and a recording made of whether it was a hit or a miss. The sender concentrates and uses mental intention to try to telepathically communicate the target to the receiver. Breaks are taken and the sending process is repeated several times. It is important that the experiments use truly random methods of selecting which packet to use and which target to select from that packet. In the autoganzfeld, the selecting and showing of the target to the sender was automated 3. Judging the outcome. The whole process of a single session lasts from 15 to 30 minutes. The receiver is relieved of her headphones and eye covers and is "presented with several stimuli (usually four) and, without knowing which stimulus was the target, is asked to rate the degree to which each matches the imagery and mentation experienced during the ganzfeld period. If the receiver assigns the highest rating to the target stimulus, it is scored as a "hit." Thus, if the experiment uses judging sets containing four stimuli (the target and three decoys or control stimuli), the hit rate expected by chance is .25" (Bem and Honorton 1994). The experimenter working with the receiver or the receiver herself "may detect creases, marks, smudges, temperature differences or other artifacts that result if actual targets have been handled and then mixed in with targets from a pool for judging. Handling cues may also result when targets placed in envelopes are opened and then resealed or placed in new envelopes, as has sometimes been done."* Ideally, two sets of targets should be used, one handled by the sender and the other given to the receiver for review. However, only 36% of the studies used duplicate target sets of pictures to avoid handling cues (Honorton 1985). Ideally, a randomization procedure should be used to determine the order in which target and decoys are presented to receivers. It is possible that a pattern of sending and selecting might occur that has nothing to do with information or energy transfer, but rather has something to do with human tendencies to choose the first, second, third, or fourth item when given a choice to select one. The autoganzfeld experiments were designed to randomly assign the order of showing the target and decoys to the receiver. The autoganzfeld also avoided the problem of forcing a choice from the four potential targets by introducing a 40-point scale for the receivers to measure how close they thought each target was to the kinds of mentation they had been having. It seems to have been the case that in some of the ganzfeld experiments receivers tended to select the second, third, or fourth item presented much more frequently than the first one shown. To avoid this kind of selection bias, randomization of the order in which the actual target is shown should be used and checks should be made to make sure that the target is presented in each of the four positions at nearly equal rates. The autoganzfeld should have eliminated handling cues, since neither sender nor receiver handled the targets, which were all shown on a monitor. However, these early studies were done using analog video tapes and not all used duplicate tapes. Some critics wondered whether some receivers might be detecting a difference between the target video and the decoys because the target would have been repeatedly played during the sending session and may have shown a slight, but detectable, decay in quality. As mentioned above, there were problems with the original ganzfeld experiments involving sensory leakage and randomization procedures. There were other problems, as well. Only fifteen of the studies appeared in refereed journals; twenty were abstracts of papers delivered at meetings of the Parapsychological Association; 5 were published monographs; and two were undergraduate honors theses in biology. In 1981 or 1982, Honorton sent all the reported studies to Hyman who proceeded to do a meta-analysis of them. Hyman concluded that the data did not warrant belief in psi, primarily because of many flaws he found in the experiments themselves. He found three types of flaws: (1) security flaws (sensory leakage; information could have been transferred by experimenters to receivers by talking in the hallway or inadvertently communicating information during the judging phase); (2) statistical flaws; and (3) procedural flaws (randomization problems; documentation problems). He rejected twenty studies as being fatally flawed. That amounted to about half the database. He stripped the data down to twenty-two studies by eight investigators and 746 trials, which accounted for 48% of the data base. Even so, Hyman found the same hit rate of 38% for these studies that Honorton had found. But, after adjusting for selection bias and quality of study, Hyman calculated the replication success rate was 31% not 55%. In his view, 58% of the studies used inadequate randomization procedures. Honorton didn't agree with all of Hyman's criticisms—especially the ones claiming that there were statistical flaws in Honorton's meta-analysis—but he did agree that there were sufficient problems with the database that no grand conclusions should be drawn until further studies were done, studies that were very tightly designed and controlled. In 1994, Daryl Bem and Honorton published a paper in Psychological Bulletin in which they claimed the autoganzfeld studies of 1983-89 replicated the ganzfeld studies of 1974-81. They argued that the autoganzfeld, though much superior in design than the ganzfeld, got similar results. They listed a number of features of the autoganzfeld that seemed to answer the questions that any skeptic might have. For example, the rooms for the sender and receiver were “separate, acoustically-isolated chambers.” And the
Additional control features included the following:
Bem and Honorton also note that “parapsychologists have often been urged to employ magicians as consultants to ensure that the experimental protocols are not vulnerable either to inadvertent sensory leakage or to deliberate cheating.” The autoganzfeld procedures were examined by two mentalists, Ford Kross, a professional mentalist and officer of the mentalist's professional organization, the Psychic Entertainers Association, and Daryl Bem, a research psychologist who has performed as a mentalist for many years and is also a member of the Psychic Entertainers Association. Both agreed that the automated ganzfeld system “provides excellent security against deception by subjects." Ray Hyman complained, however, that controls were not as tight as they should have been. He writes:
Have controls been tightened and have the studies been replicated? In June 1996, several researchers published a paper in The Journal of Parapsychology that describes the many security and design protocols instituted at the Psychophysical Research Laboratories (PRL) for further autoganzfeld research. This lab is at the University of Edinburgh and is used by researchers associated with the Koestler Chair of Parapsychology. These protocols are very detailed and need not be gone into here. (The paper is available online.) They seem to answer most questions any skeptic might have about the autoganzfeld procedure. The authors write:
There have been new experiments and believers such as Jessica Utts say they replicate the earlier positive-result studies. Skeptics disagree. For example, Julie Milton and Richard Wiseman published their own meta-analysis of ganzfeld studies and concluded that "the ganzfeld technique does not at present offer a replicable method for producing ESP in the laboratory" (1999). Others have re-analyzed that data and have come to a different conclusion. In 2001, Bem, Broughton, and Palmer, published their own meta-analysis of the same data reviewed by Milton and Wiseman ("Updating the Ganzfeld database: A Victim of its own success?" Journal of Parapsychology 65, 2001). They found a hit rate for all experiments was 30% when 25% was expected by chance. And, finally, ever-the-optimist Dean Radin published his own meta-analysis (with Marilyn Schlitz) of the ganzfeld experiments in 2001 and concluded that the hit rate in the ganzfeld was so great that the odds against chance were "greater than a trillion to one." [M. Schlitz & D. I. Radin, "Telepathy in the ganzfeld: State of the evidence," in W. Jonas & C. Crawford (Eds.), Healing, Intention and Energy Medicine (London: Harcourt Health Sciences, 2002).] They "found a grand total of 929 hits out of 2,878 sessions reported by researchers from at least 15 different laboratories." Radin claims that he and Schlitz had "surveyed the telepathy literature to update all known ganzfeld trials."* However, Andrew Endersby claims that he has more than twice that number of sessions in his database of ganzfeld experiments.* Endersby writes:
Therein lies both the attraction and the repulsion of meta-analysis. The results may depend on which individual studies one excludes from the meta-study. Establishing the existence of telepathy in the ganzfeld seems like too important an issue to have the result determined by meta-analyses. Surely, there should be an effort made to conduct a well-designed study with a very large number of participants. conclusion We may be justified in having a very high confidence that when ganzfeld studies are done, receivers are likely to guess correctly a one-in-four target at significantly greater than chance odds. It is still a leap to assume that information or energy has been transferred. Maybe it has but how it occurred is anybody's guess. As Bem and Honorton say: if there is an anomalous transfer of information or energy, it doesn't have to be paranormal. Paranormal investigator Susan Blackmore (2001) has an insider's view of the ganzfeld. She has gone over the circumstances under which the ganzfeld studies were conducted and the papers that have been published in support of the psi hypothesis. Here are her comments:
Blackmore’s skepticism stands in stark contrast to Radin’s glowing optimism and his claim of overall hit rates with odds against chance of a million billion to one (Radin 1997: 88). He seems to be overstating the case when he writes “We now know that ... psi effects do occur in the ganzfeld” (88). Actually, what we know is that the jury is still out and it probably will never come in if the best that parapsychologists can come up with is a statistic in a meta-analysis that is unlikely due to chance. Even if we take the data at face value, we know that no matter how statistically significant the results are, the actual size of this psi effect is so small that we can’t detect it in a single person in any obvious way. We have to deduce it from guessing experiments. What hope do we have of isolating, harnessing, or expanding this power if a person who has it can’t even directly recognize its presence? Then again, what if Dean Radin is right? See also confirmation bias, ESP, experimenter effect, law of really large numbers, meta-analysis, occult statistics, parapsychology, pathological science, PEAR, post hoc fallacy, psi assumption, psychic drift, and psychokinesis. further reading
Blackmore, S. J. (1980). "The extent of selective reporting of ESP ganzfeld studies," European Journal of Parapsychology 3:3 , 213–220. Blackmore, Susan (2003). Consciousness: An Introduction. Oxford University Press. Christopher, Milbourne. (1970). ESP, Seers & Psychics. Thomas Y. Crowell Co. Honorton, C. (1985). Meta-analysis of psi ganzfeld research: A response to Hyman. Journal of Parapsychology, 49, 51-91. Hyman, R. (1985). The ganzfeld psi experiment: A critical appraisal. Journal of Parapsychology, 49 3-49. Hyman, Ray (1995). "Evaluation of Program on Anomalous Mental Phenomena," Journal of Scientific Exploration, Volume 10 Number 1. Marks, David. The Psychology of the Psychic (Buffalo, N.Y.: Prometheus Books, 2000). Milton, J. and R.Wiseman (1999). "Does psi exist? Lack of replication of an anomalous process of information transfer." Psychological Bulletin, 125 (4), 387-391. Schick Jr., Theodore and Lewis Vaughn (2001). How to Think About Weird Things 3rd. ed. McGraw Hill. Stenger, Victor J. (2002). "Meta-Analysis and the File-Drawer Effect." Skeptical Briefs. last updated 12/03/2007 |
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©copyright 2007 Robert Todd Carroll |
Uri
Geller |
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